Player Commercial Deal Calculator
Online Live & Slots — Theo Win → Rebate → CRM → Risk → LTV
Volume Completion Probability
Chance the player delivers their promised volume over the contract period. The single biggest lever on deal value.
- <50% — Unknown player. Require upfront deposit or sharply reduced rebate.
- 55–65% — New online player, no track record.
- 70–80% — Established VIP, 6+ months history. (Default: 78%)
- 85–95% — Long-term high-loyalty player, predictable volumes.
Player & Game
Online live: 100–150/hr · Slots: 600–800/hr (spin-based)
Volume
Online live VIP: 2,000–10,000 · Slots: 50–500/spin
Online: 2–4 hrs/day (shorter than land-based)
Typical: 3–6 month trial, then 12-month renewal
Rebate Structure
Turnover: 0.4–0.8% live · 0.2–0.5% slots. Applied to total handle.
Default 78% — established VIP, consistent play history
Player Costs
Deposit match, free spins, bonus funds
Host time, personalised offers, retention campaigns
Gateway fees, FX, chargeback risk
Provider revenue share or SaaS allocation
Operational
CS, fraud monitoring, dispute resolution
ID verification, SOF checks, PEP screening
Transaction monitoring, SAR filing, compliance
Risk
Good VIP pre-pay: 3–5% · Credit line: 8–12% · Crypto/anon: 20%+
Clean KYC/SOF: 5K–10K · PEP / high-risk jurisdiction: 25K+
CRM & LTV
Good VIP: 5–8%/mo · Average: 10–15% · Target: <6%
Points value, tier perks, comp redemptions
Birthday bonuses, surprise & delight, bespoke promos
Win-back campaigns, lapse-trigger bonuses
Analytics, segmentation, comms platform
Default Settings — Good Established VIP, No Credit Line
- Volume Completion 78% — Established player with history. Evidence-based, not optimistic.
- Default Probability 4% — Pre-pay model. Covers chargebacks, payment failure, edge cases.
- Reg Risk 8,000 — Clean KYC, verified SOF, no PEP flags. Routine monitoring only.
- No Credit Line — Online is pre-pay. Enable only if you'd extend physical casino credit to this player.
- 0.5% Turnover Rebate — Leaves 43% of Theo in the house before costs. Competitive but not giveaway.
- Churn Rate 7%/mo — Good online VIP. At 7% monthly, ~52% survival at 9 months.
Approval targets: Retained margin >30% · Risk-Adjusted ROI >50% · Final Deal Value positive after 78% volume adjustment.